Fed Chairman Bernanke, THE undisputed expert on the Great Depression, evidently felt so scared of seeing that scenario unfold this time, that he and Pres. Bush, Treasury Sec. Paulson, SEC Chairman Cox, and at least several hundred lesser knowns put together the "everything including the kitchen sink" bailout package (which is being called the stabilization package so they don't have to say bailout) of the century this week. This has changed the rules that have been in place for 70 years. And, we don't know the particulars yet. Only the headlines were disclosed in an attempt to turn the markets, which worked so far. Did they put on a bigger bandaide or fix the problems? Most likely, this is another bandaide. They say the money markets are now covered under FDIC, and that the Government (you and I) will be taking half a Trillion (with a T) of bad mortgages off banks balance sheets. Wow, I guess the Darwins concepts of evolutionary survival of the fittest no longer apply to American business, banking, or speculating. It's now okay to be a blundering idiot and destroy other people's lives and net worths, and be backed and bailed out by good old Uncle Sam.
THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS...WE SHOULD NOT BE CHEERING !!!
Coming so close to financial collapse, for the US and other countries, is nothing to celebrate. Are our systems and products too advanced for our regulators and leaders to control? Apparently! Check out the list below of all the longs I sold prior to the open on the hype of the "stabilization". I got huge one and two day moves, and must exit, as I don't understand the new rules of the new game. When I do, I can play again.
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(closed trades are always in black type)
INTERESTING PLAYS TO LIGHTEN UP ON OR SHORT SELL: Currently, there are no open short positions, which usually happens close to market lows. But, stay tuned. We took amazing profits into the Freddie/Fannie failure and will re-short on a reasonable rally. Looking to short the Euro 1.4900 or higher, near Fibo 50% of prior decline.
INTERESTING PLAYS TO ACCUMULATE OR BUY (if you have to in a dangerous environment): See August 11 posting for profit taking on a lot of former trades. MSFT under 23, adding under 18, YHOO under 20 or above 22 and adding under 13 (entered 19.82 on August 11), GOOG on break back above 475 or under 461 (entered 460.99 at 9a on 9/3, exited at breakeven premarket 9/19) and adding under 400, EBAY on break back above 22 (lower from 24 on 9/15) (entered 21.99 on 9/15) and adding under 17, SNDK under 12 or above 15 (entered 15.01 on 9/5, using 13.48 stop as of 9/10, exited 24 premarket 9/19, +8.99 or 59%), GRMN under 30 or above 35 (down from 36 on 9/16, entered 35.01 on 9/18, using breakeven stop as of 9/19), DELL under 17 (entered 16.50 9/16) and adding under 10, SMH (entered @ 25 on 9/15 at market open) adding under 21, SLV entered 10.75 (exited 12.45 9/19, +15.8%)...I'll reenter 11.75 and add twice this amount at 8.75. GS under 118 (entered 117.48 on 9/16 6:09 am, exited 139.80 premarket 9/19 +22.32 or 18.9%) or above 130 and adding under 88 (lowered from 95 on 9/17), C which is riskier than most below 15 (entered 14.99 on 9/17, exited premarket 9/19 @21.99 +7 or 46%). GE under 23 (entered 22.99 9/16, exited 29.49 premarket 9/19 +6.50 or 28%), MS under 18 (lowered from 24 on 9/17) (entered 17.99 on 9/17, exited premarket 9/19 @34, +16.01 or 88% ), JEF under 14 or above 19 (entered 19.01 9/17, exited 28 premarket on 9/19, +9, or 47%), SBUX under 13 or above 17, UWM under 43 or above 46 (entered 46.01 9/16, exited premarket 9/19 @ 55, +8.99, or 19.5%), RIMM under 95 (entered 94.99 9/16, exited 99.99 on 9/25, +5.00 or 5.5%) or above 100, AAPL under 135 (entered 134.99 9/16) or above 140, INTC under 19 (entered 18.99 9/16) or above 21.
In Crude, I will buy any test of 100 +/-2 or a break above 112 now (entered $101.78 on 9/10 and stop is now breakeven as of 9/19 at 11a PST, exited 109.08 10:40a PST, +$7.10 or $3505 per contract) adding near $90 (added $90.98 on 9/16 @4:30am PST, exited this second position only $96.98 on 9/17 11:28a PST, +6 handles or $3000 per contract). Standing aside as of 9/22 10:44a.
Re-entered the Euro at 1.4439 @ 8a on 9/3 (exited 1.4539 on 9/18, +1 handle or $1250 per contract) and I'll add second entry back if under 1.4050 (added 1.4049 on 9/15 @ 4am PST, stop on this second position only at 1.4000 entered 11am PST, exited this position only 1.4359 on 9/17 @11:44a PST, +3.1 handles or $3875 per contract), standing aside now to see how things shake out or buying under 1.4200 (entered 1.4199 on 9/19 4:30a PST, exited 1.4649 on 9/22 9:26a PST, +4.5 handles or $5,625 per contract, as bounce pattern looks corrective, and everyone calling for further immediate move higher).
For what it's worth,
Ken
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