Oct 3, 2008

OOOPS, WHERE'S THE RALLY? BUY RUMORS, SELL FACTS...WATCH 10,000 !

The House just passed the bailout bill that the Senate did, and the market is falling again, off the +300 peak it was at when the vote ended...President Bush is about to speak and sign the new bailout bill, and possibly hint at the use of the backup plan that was prepared if a weak market followed the passage of the bill, but the market fell. That is likely to be a interest rate lowering of 1/2 to 1 full point (50 to 100 basis points). Let's wait and see. It would have to be very scary for him to announce the rate lowering, as it's Bernanke's job and turf.

Markets are very, very oversold, so this is NOT the time to be selling stuff you have held through the pain, or putting on "new bearish" trades. Use a 5-10% rally to lighten up on your dogs, and use any further 5-10% decline to put a "little" money to work for a trading rally. All eyes are on Dow 10,000 which is the psychological level of pain for most Americans. If we test that today, it'd better hold, or we'll see 9,000 in a hurry...maybe 8,300.

Oye Vey!

For what it's worth,

Ken