Again, the Fed's rate lowering had only temporary success in creating the Hope that Wall Street lives on, this time only 90 minutes, prior to the anxious sellers coming in to raise cash. There is so much pain and suffering (losses) that any and all chances to sell anything are taken without question. This is PERFECT for our call for a major, multi month, low coming to fruition in the next few days to weeks.
The GOP is pulling out all the stops to try to bolster the McCain ticket into election day. The Fed's secret PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM is historically active in the pits, buying with both hands to keep the inevitable final purge from happening prior to Nov. 4th. However, just like the attempts of the past year didn't stop the 6000 point decline in the Dow, neither will these attempts stop the final 2000 +/- point decline into the test of the 6500-7500 area, which is needed to fulfill the pattern, into the wave "A" low that is due in this time frame. If they (GOP) can pull it off, it'll be a beautiful backup strategy. If Obama wins, which polls show is most likely, the collapse will occur just after elections and the blame will be placed on the "uncertainty of the untested Obama" presidency.
Either way, like the old saying, "you can't fool mother nature", we can translate that to the current, "the Fed can't change mother MARKET"! Nothing they've tried in the past year, and they've thrown everything they have at it, has worked. In a few days to weeks, the last wave of the initial decline from 14k to 6500-7500 will manifest and the buying opportunity of the past year will be presented. From there, the "head fake" uber-rally will blast emotion, hope, and stocks higher in an inauguration day extravaganza that will be celebrated as the coming of the market messiah. Get ready, as this bear market bounce is foretold!
The test of our belief, our souls, and our portfolios will come back in the 11k-12k area early in 2009. What will you do? If you don't prepare for that exit opportunity, you will miss the last chance to save your wealth from the most severe destruction of your life. The decline following this bear market rally into 11k-12k will make the slide of the past year look like hiccup.
Bottom Line: by the middle of December, we should not only have seen the final wave of this initial decline from 14k, but should be on our way back up to what will become the Spring Fizzle rally, that rolls over and makes 2009 the biggest bust year since the Great Depression.
I'll be posting entries for the rally in a few days, as we get closer to the 6500-7500 area.
For what it's worth,
Ken
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