This is just a quick note, prior to this weekend's detailed comments about the State of the Markets. Today's brief dip under 8000 is UNLIKELY to be the low we are looking for in this time frame. 6500-7500 remains the range where that low should happen, and the next few days to weeks is the range in time.
Friday is the last day for rich investors in hedge funds to notify the funds of their desire to withdraw funds on December 31. So, between now and the next few days to weeks, those funds that have been notified that they need to produce cold, hard cash will be selling more holdings to avail themselves of cash for distribution. Therefore, today is a low probability for the low of 2008, but again, we're very close...much closer to the low than the high. Any probing under 7500 will get us excited; probing under 7000 will get us exstatic; and under 6500 will get us arrested!
From this low, whatever the final number turns out to be, we expect a 30%-80% rally in the following 3-9 months. Unfortunately, that rally will eventually give way to the slaughter of 2009/2010. First things first though, and a major low is imminent!
Check in this weekend for massively, wealth enhancing information.
For what it's worth,
Ken
Nov 13, 2008
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