EXTREME OVERSOLD CONDITION suggests short, maybe sharp, bounce any moment now!

***Note***this is an update with posted profits on our buy/sell lists.

Current market conditions are sloppy and down, but important levels are being tested, as well as under-market technicals are near extremes, where snap-back rallies have tended to occur. At this moment, the Dow is down 200 testing 11,200, the S&P is down 18 testing 1260, and the Nasdaq is down 29 testing 2255. These levels, in no way, mark the end of the decline that we have been forecasting for months, but likely will mark the end of the first wave lower, in an ongoing decline that should dramatically break levels most are afraid of. After a multi week rally, the Dow should break 10,000 and test 8,000. In fact, that could prove to be far too conservative. Evidence of a short term low IS NOT visible, but could be seen this week. This exit of shorts and fractional entries of longs is anticipating that turn. In a waterfall decline, which current market conditions suggest, buying anything is an extremely risky play. This is why we suggest fractional entries if at all. Conservative players would allow a bounce to re-enter short positions, since the market has "told" us that the trend for some time to come is DOWN. Either the time will be short and the points large, or the time will be long and the points can be less severe. These are the only two options, other than continued rally. Evidence doesn't support that outcome.

We'd be exiting any and all profitable short positions, including all those on our RED list in prior issues. Many have profits from 10-40% as of noon Eastern, July 1, 2008. We'd also be buying, for short term bounce only, many of those on our GREEN list, like msft, yhoo, sbux, grmn, ebay, ba. These sections below have been updated with exit pricing and percentage gain or loss as of the time posted above.

These buys would be with a small portion of any portfolio, as they all could continue to decline. So, our plan would be to buy only 1/4 of the shares we would eventually want to own of each of these plays, adding on further significant declines.

On the other hand, our long amgn position has done well, quickly, and we'd take profits on that entirely here at 48, +20%.

Percentage profit/loss is being calculated from from the "above" or "from" number to the exit price posted today, as of the time stamped above. Minimal slippage doesn't materially change the percentage gain/loss.
Popular stocks to lighten up on at current prices or higher are (note that almost every one on this list is significantly below the price I've been listing to lighten up, exit, or short at): CSCO above 25, covered at 23.10 +7.5%, EBAY above 30, covered at 27.05 +9.8%, AMZN above 80, covered at 70.70 +11.6%, COST above 70, covered at 69.50 for about break even, INTC above 24, covered at 21.21 +11.6%, YHOO above 27, covered at 19.65 +27.2%, SNDK above 30, covered at 17.25 +42%, RIMM above 145, covered at 114 +21%, AAPL above 180, covered at 165.25 +8.2%, BA above 82, covered at 65 +20.7%, GOOG above 560, covered at 519 +4%, DELL above 23, covered at 21.8 +5.2%.

Interesting stocks to add to gently (if you have to): GE from 30 could test 36 and add into 18, SBUX from 13-15 could test 23-25, GRMN from 40-42 as pointed out for weeks (touched 55 so far and if you didn't take those profits from 42, +30%, hold for the next run above 55) could test 60-75, AMGN from 40, sold at 48 +20%, ABK from 2-3 could test 20+ if not in bankruptsy a year from now, WM from 5-10 could test 18-23 also if not in bankruptsy, adding into 2.50, BAC from 27-32 could test 42 and add into 16 , C below 18 and add into 12 which could test 40 in coming 12-24 months, and MSFT from 26.5 could test 31 by year end, GM under 12, adding in the 6-8 range, for at least a test of 30 in coming 2 years, BA under 68 for bounce to 77-80, adding in the 45-55 range, YHOO under 20 for bounce to 25-30, adding in the 12-14 range, EBAY under 28 for bounce toward 38, adding in the 18-21 range, and SNDK under 18 for bounce toward 35, adding in the 10-12 range, GE under 27 for bounce toward 32, adding into the 17-20 range, NVDA under 13 for bounce toward 23-25, adding into the 7-9 range, VMW under 38 for bounce toward 55, adding into the 18-22 range, SBUX under 15 for bounce into 25, adding into the 8-10 range, MER under 31 for bounce toward 50, adding into the 18-20 range, and all home builders for bounce of 30-50% from their lows, but specifically, KBH under 16 for bounce toward 30, HOV under 5 for bounce toward 12 and TOL under 18 for bounce toward 25, finally GOOG under 480, adding into 380 lightly for ride into 600-650 this summer.


For what it's worth,
Ken